> I was in the US recently and asked what I thought was a fairly
> straightforward question but all the Americans that I asked it
> of told me that it was profound and interesting:
> If the Democrats win the House in the midterms, do you think
> that the Republicans will gradually withdraw their support for
Well, I can only give my personal take on it, but I don't think
it's a straightforward question.
Both US major parties are coalition parties (though they don't
always realize it). One strange thing about the Republican party
is that the elected officials have, until recently, largely come
from a narrow slice of that coalition (fiscal conservative,
business interest). That started changing with the Tea Party
stuff around Obama, which introduced another slice into office
The Trump election suggests that there was a significant
segment which didn't align exactly with either of those slices,
something more social reactionary and authoritarian. Still, the
vast majority of Republican Congressfolk are from those two
slices. The business interest slice finds aspects of Trumpian
economics alarming. (Some of) the social conservatives find
It's this slice of the coalition that's intersting because, as I understand
it, Trump was not a Republican politician before he ran for president. I'm
not sure of what his relationship to the party was but perhaps these
supporters have been drawn from other places relatively recently and will
change their mind when alternatives present themselves?
I think Matt Jones' point here is very relevant tho'.
So will they withdraw their support? Well, his underrepresented
base will likely remain loyal -- they've already cultivated an
"under siege" mentality ("fake news", "mainstream
etc), so they're more likely to question the elections
themselves than to stop supporting Trump.
Yes: this is a faily self-reinforcing situation. I imagine it will spread
further than just Trumpian politics as well.
That's assuming "gradually" means "over the course
of the rest
of his first term". If, on the other hand, we're talking about,
say, a decade? I'm pretty sure Trump's support won't stay solid
for that long.
I was thinnking "over the course of the rest of his first term". It'd be
embarrasing not to win a second term tho'!
Again, though, just my take, just a middle manager, not a
political scientist, etc, etc.